Ghanaians will go to the polls on Saturday to elect their next president, as the West African country grapples with its worst economic situation in decades.
Twelve candidates are vying for the presidency, as the current incumbent, Nana Akufo-Addo, reaches his two-term limit.
But the frontrunners are seen as two men from Ghana’s two dominant parties: the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Opinion polls indicate that voters are split between current vice president Mahamudu Bawumia, 61, and former one-term president John Mahama, 66, who hopes to achieve a comeback similar to that achieved by US President-elect Donald Trump.
But other issues such as high unemployment and a crisis over illegal gold mining, known locally as “galamsey” will also influence how voters cast their ballots, said Kwame Asah-Asante, a political science lecturer at the University of Ghana.
Rising poverty levels
Ghanaians have been railing against environmental degradation caused by unlicensed small-scale mining, a longstanding issue that has left large swathes of land pockmarked by pits and major rivers polluted.
Over the years, illegal mining sites have proliferated despite efforts by successive governments to rein in galamsey, including military deployments by the current government to shut it down.
High inflation, youth unemployment and a steep increase in the cost of living are believed to be its main drivers amid a global surge in gold prices. According to data from the Ghana Statistical Service, more than 1.3 million people aged between 15 and 35 were unemployed as of September last year.
The country’s economy is also reeling from the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, which triggered “a rise in poverty levels since 2020,” according to the World Bank.
It added in an October report that “weak economic growth, limited government spending, and high inflation – particularly in food prices – have worsened living standards, pushing more people into poverty, and increasing the risk of food insecurity.”
In December 2022, Ghana’s inflation rate hit 54.1% year-on-year – its highest rate in more than two decades – spurring protests over alleged economic mismanagement.
In the same year, Ghana’s central bank recorded a loss of 60.8 billion cedi (more than $5 billion at the time). The country also suffered other economic shocks such as the depreciation of its currency, mounting debts, and a federal budget “weakened by high energy sector costs” amid “low public revenues,” the World Bank said last year.
“If the economy had gone well, I don’t think the opposition would have stood any chance because when it comes to the economic jargon, nobody understands it better than (current vice president and presidential candidate) Bawumia,” economist Bokpin said about the potential impact the economic hardships may have had on the ruling party’s popularity.
Bawumia, a UK-trained economist, has been the poster boy of the government’s economic policies, chairing its economic management team.
In response to criticism over his handling of the country’s struggling economy, Bawumia has absolved himself from the blame, saying in February that his role was advisory and without decision-making powers.
Bawumia has also been criticized by his rival, Mahama, for saying little about the economy during his campaigns.
“His strategy has been to dissociate himself from the economic fallouts,” Bokpin said of Bawumia.
Analyst Asah-Asante said that Bawumia’s record on the economy had become “both a blessing and a curse to him” in the run-up to the election.
His campaign spokesperson, Denis Miracles Aboagye, acknowledged there had been challenges.
The statistical service announced Wednesday that the country’s annual inflation rate had risen to 23%, the highest in six months, with just days to the election.
Aboagye said the current government had performed strongly on road infrastructure, health, education and tackling unemployment, however, adding that more than 2.3 million jobs had been created.
Bawumia’s manifesto also boasts of providing stable electricity for almost eight years after lingering power cuts that blighted Mahama’s first stint in office between 2012 and 2017.
Local studies said the power shortages – known in Ghana as “dumsor” – cost the country millions of dollars in lost revenue in that period.
“The dumsor under Mahama was so severe, it continues to bring back painful memories to those who lost their economic livelihoods,” Asah-Asante said.
A reset or upgrade?
Mahama has vowed at campaign rallies to “reset” the nation on a path “for good governance and accountability” if he wins back his job.
He touts successes in cutting unemployment rates and boosting press freedom during his time in office. If given another term, Mahama pledges to run a small but efficient government and bring down taxes within three months. He also plans to ban illegal mining and introduce a 24-hour economy to create jobs.
Bawumia promises to reduce the cost of living by “stabilizing the prices of foods produced locally” and digitalizing the country’s economy. He also plans to enforce safer mining practices, among other initiatives, if elected.
More than half of Ghana’s 34 million people are registered to vote in this year’s election and many are clamoring for change.
“I hope and pray that we should have a government that would listen to the plight of the people, a government that would have the magic wand to turn things around and make Ghana a better place for us,” Asah-Asante said.
The presidential poll will be held alongside a vote for members of parliament.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the total votes cast. If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round of voting, a run-off election will be held for the two highest-placing candidates.
Asah-Asante expects a closely fought election between the two frontrunners but is hopeful that power will be peacefully transferred to whoever wins, in line with Ghana’s long-standing democratic tradition.
“I’m optimistic that the people of Ghana will vote massively for democracy… and whoever loses the election would accept defeat and abide by the rules of the game and the country should be calm after election for us to continue the journey towards an endured democracy,” he said.